Tuesday, April 30, 2013

NHL First Round Preview

As promised, here is my preview of the first round of the greatest postseason there is.

Eastern Conference

1 Pittsburgh vs 8 NY Islanders

According to many "experts", the Islanders are the unlucky ones, drawing the unstoppable juggernaut known as the Pittsburgh Penguins. I, for one, don't see it that way. This simply means the Penguins will not run away with this series. First of all, they still don't have their captain, Sidney Crosby. Second, their goaltender, Marc-Andre Fleury, must prove that his awful first round performance against the Flyers was simply a blip on the radar screen. Third, the Islanders have enough scoring to match Pittsburgh's big guns. John Tavares may be the Hart Trophy winner this season, and he has finally hit the big stage. The Islanders are playing with house money, and all the pressure is on the Pens to win the Cup this year. This all said, the Penguins simply have too much, and with their battle tested veterans, will find a way to get it done. But don't be shocked if this series goes much longer than expected.
Penguins in 6

2 Montreal vs 7 Ottawa

The Habs were one of the surprise teams in the league this season, riding grit, top-notch defense, and the goaltending of Carey Price to a Northeast division crown. But they run into my dark horse for this postseason, the Ottawa Senators. The Sens are a team that fought through injuries that would debilitate most teams. And they got their best player, Erik Karlsson, back right on time. This no-excuses mentality will make the Sens dangerous. And I, for one, see it pushing this underrated team to an upset.
Senators in 7

3 Washington vs 6 NY Rangers

A matchup of arguably the two hottest teams in the NHL right now. And these two know each other very well. This will be the fourth time in the last five years these two have met in the playoffs, with the Rangers winning an epic 7 game Eastern semifinal last season. This Washington team is different from last year's, however. Alex Ovechkin became Alex Ovechkin again this year. Their power play is by far the best in the league. Some say they are a much more mature team than ever, ready for the 2 month playoff grind. Well, the Rangers are, too. A month ago, it appeared they may not make the tournament. But after trading underachieving sniper Marian Gaborik to Columbus for Derick Brassard, John Moore, and Derek Dorsett, the Rangers have their identity back at the right time. They will grind you and defend you to death. And with Rick Nash in the fold, coupled with a breakout year by Derek Stepan, the Rangers appear to have enough depth to make a deeper playoff run. The key to this series will be special teams. The Rangers MUST stay out of the box and not take needless penalties. They also need Ryane Clowe and Marc Staal to come back healthy. If they do, they can shut down Ovechkin and the Power Play. Oh, and who wouldn't take Henrik Lundqvist over Braden Holtby in goal?
Rangers in 7

4 Boston vs 5 Toronto

Boston enters the postseason as arguably the coldest team in the league right now. They have not played well in the month of April, and show no signs of improvement right now. How will Tuukka Rask fare in his first postseason as featured goaltender? Toronto makes it's first postseason appearance since 2004. No one expected big things from them this year. But with James van Riemsdyk adding a larger scoring touch, and James Reimer assuming duties as a number one goalie, the Leafs rode this surprise all the way to a number 5 seed. The only concern I have is whether or not Toronto can match the Bruins' physicality for a full seven games. They certainly have enough scoring to get by, and that is key in any postseason series. Fortunately for them, they face an ice cold team right now, but they also face a team playing for a heartbroken city. This series is a tossup, but I have to bet against the cold team.
Leafs in 7

Western Conference

1 Chicago vs 8 Minnesota

The Hawks, after going half the season undefeated in regulation, enter the playoffs as Cup favorites. This team has it all: scoring, ultra-tight defense, special teams, and top-flight goaltending, albeit in a platoon situation. Minnesota barely squeaked in to the playoffs, but did they really deserve it, especially after getting destroyed 6-1 by Edmonton in the second to last game of the season? Zach Parise and Ryan Suter may have made this team better, but they are still overmatched by Chicago. Also, as I type this, their goaltender, Niklas Backstrom, who played brilliantly down the stretch, was  injured prior to game one. His absence kills any chance the Wild had.
Blackhawks in 5

2 Anaheim vs 7 Detroit

The classic trap series for a 2 seed. For a short time, it appeared the Ducks would overtake the Blackhawks for the number one seed in the West. Now, after a mediocre April, they face probably the hottest team in the Western Conference, the Red Wings. Detroit had to win 4 straight games to simply make the playoffs. Now that they are in, especially with a confident goalie in Jimmy Howard, they are dangerous. Very dangerous. The Ducks must get the absolute best from their top line of Getzlaf-Perry-Ryan to counter. The X-factor here will be the absence of Nick Lidstrom on the power play. Will Detroit be able to duplicate his production?
Ducks in 7

3 Vancouver vs 6 San Jose

Another classic toss-up series, this team because neither team really impresses or stands out all that much. Vancouver is compromised this season with an uncertain goaltender situation, and especially with the absence of Ryan Kesler. As good as the Sedins are, Kesler makes them better. The championship window is closing for this Canucks team, and they are riding more uncertainty than ever into the playoffs. Antii Niemi has been great in net for the Sharks, but can Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton step it up in a big spot, as they have failed to do in the past?
Canucks in 6

4 St. Louis vs 5 Los Angeles

For my money, this is the best and most intriguing first round series. As the Kings proved last season, anything can happen, regardless of seeding. After sweeping the Blues in last year's Western semifinal, St. Louis is out for revenge. And they may be even better than last year. Goalie Brian Elliott has had the proverbial see-saw season. He started off slowly, got demoted to the AHL, but came back up and went 11-2-0 with a 1.28 GAA to close the season. Jonathan Quick will have to channel last year's Conn Smythe Trophy winning form for the Kings to have a chance to repeat. Both teams are very physical and evenly matched. This series will come down to who makes the biggest mistake. Another toss-up series, but I have to go with experience.
Kings in 6

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